The Fiesta Bowl matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Boise State Broncos presents an intriguing contest for bettors. As of December 31, 2024, Penn State is favored by 11 points, with a moneyline of -450, while Boise State stands at +350. The over/under for the game is set at 52.5 points.
Team Overviews:
Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State boasts a formidable defense, allowing over 20 points in only five games this season against teams like Oregon, Minnesota, Ohio State, USC, and Bowling Green. Their offense is led by quarterback Drew Allar, who has been instrumental in their recent successes. In the first round of the College Football Playoff, Penn State secured a convincing 38-10 victory over SMU, showcasing their balanced offensive and defensive capabilities.
Boise State Broncos: The Broncos' offense is spearheaded by running back Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman runner-up with nearly 2,500 rushing yards this season. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has also been effective, contributing to a dynamic offensive unit. Boise State has demonstrated resilience, notably in a close game against Oregon, and has consistently scored over 20 points in all but one game this season.
Betting Considerations:
Point Spread: While Penn State is an 11-point favorite, some analysts believe Boise State can cover this spread. Their potent offense, led by Jeanty, poses a significant challenge to Penn State's defense. Additionally, Penn State has shown vulnerabilities, allowing over 20 points in multiple games this season. Given Boise State's consistent scoring ability, betting on them to cover the +11 spread could be a prudent choice.
Over/Under (52.5 points): Considering both teams' offensive strengths and potential defensive lapses, the over/under line of 52.5 points seems attainable. Boise State has a history of surpassing 20 points in games, and Penn State's offense is equally capable of high scoring. Therefore, betting the over might be a favorable option.
Moneyline: Betting on Penn State to win outright offers limited value due to the -450 odds. Conversely, while a Boise State upset is possible, it remains a less likely outcome. Thus, the moneyline bet may not provide the best risk-reward balance for this game.
Expert Predictions:
The Arizona Republic: Predicts a 35-20 victory for Penn State, suggesting they will cover the spread.
USA TODAY Sports: Offers varied predictions, with one analyst forecasting a 28-24 win for Boise State, indicating a potential upset, while another predicts a 26-17 win for Penn State, implying they will cover the spread.
College Football News: Projects a 30-23 win for Penn State, suggesting that Boise State will cover the spread.
Conclusion:
Considering the available data and expert analyses, betting on Boise State to cover the +11 spread appears to be a reasonable choice. Their robust offense, led by Ashton Jeanty, is likely to challenge Penn State's defense and keep the game competitive. Additionally, the over on the 52.5 points total is worth considering, given both teams' offensive capabilities. As always, it's essential to assess your risk tolerance and conduct further researc
h before placing any bets.
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